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Full Time Employment Down 5 Million – No Full Time Job Growth in Obama “Recovery” Except Govt

August 8, 2013 08:47

Total employment is 2.2 million below the 2007 level in spite of 13 million more people of working age.

By Mike “Mish” Shedlock at MISH’S Global Economic Trend Analysis

An Analysis of July Employment Numbers 1955 to 2013; Full-Time Employment Down Over 5 Million Since 2007

Reader Tim Wallace provides another excellent set of graphs on employment as shown below.

Full-Time Employment

click on any chart for sharper image

Full time employment is actually now 5.17 million below the 2007 level.
Total employment is 2.2 million below the 2007 level in spite of 13 million more people of working age.

Part-Time Employment

Wallace writes: “The past five years are near or above the previous all time high set back in 1982. These five years are all in that abysmal range. No other year comes close. I expect things will get worse as the year continues.”

Job Growth Trends by Type of Job and Part-Time Status

Here is an interesting chart by reader Tim Wallace that shows growth on jobs in five distinct job categories: Construction, Manufacturing, Hospitality, Retail, and Government.

Wallace Comments

On Government Jobs: “Remember, this is only direct government payrolls, local, county, state and Obama - Killing Jobs federal, and does not include the millions of contracted positions from privatization. I am still trying to find a reputable way to extract those numbers. Note the steady, steep growth in government jobs over the years, only dipping and then going flat in 2009. The growth in working age population since 1939 is about 150%, the growth in government jobs about 440%. This is more than a little skewed.

On Construction Jobs: Construction staffing levels go back to May of 1997. Since then the working age population is up by 43 million, a 21% population increase, with no increase in construction jobs.

On Manufacturing Jobs: Manufacturing jobs are now back to the levels of February 1946. Since then, working age population has increased by 144 million. Manufacturing jobs peaked around June of 1979 at 19.6 million and was about 17.3 million in early 2000. Manufacturing jobs now total approximately 12 million.

Additional Charts From St. Louis Fed

click on any chart for sharper image

Total Nonfarm Employees

Leisure and Hospitality: Total

Leisure and Hospitality: Food Service and Drinking Establishments

Of the total increase in L&H jobs, most were Food Service and Drinking Establishments jobs. These are typically low paying, part-time jobs.

Education and Health Services

Education and healthcare was a big winner in the recovery and even before. Some of these are well paying jobs such as nurses and some teaching positions. Other jobs in this sector are very low paying.

Retail Trade

These jobs tend to be low paying part-time jobs as well.

Part Time Job Growth

Finally, here is a chart from Doug Short at Advisor Perspectives on Part-Time employment.

Click on the preceding link for additional charts and analysis.

Doug comments and I concur “It is certainly possible that the Affordable Care Act (aka Obamacare) is playing a role in employer decisions about full-time versus part-time employment. The $2,000 per employee penalty for employers who do not comply with regulations has influenced some employers to begin shifting their employment policies. Last month the government pushed the start of the penalty from January 2014 to January 2015. But the anticipation of the penalty, even though delayed a year, will probably continue to influence the interim decisions of private employers.”

Mike “Mish” Shedlock

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Mike Shedlock / Mish is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management.