Insolvent and Going Deeper

April 18, 2011 06:38

The only way out is to accept the idea that living standards have to fall to match the prior excesses, an admission that ‘experts’ agree is politically impossible in the US at this time.



For anybody who is even a casual student of history or has paid the slightest bit of attention to what has transpired for Greece, Ireland, Portugal, and other countries with an unrestrained tendency to spend more than they have, it is clear what the progression of events will be for the US.

First there will be a fiscal/funding crisis that will originate in the bond market, specifically the US Treasury market. Interest rates will shoot up, and either austerity will be imposed on the US in a rather unpleasant and draconian way (the bond market is rather remorseless), or it will be self-imposed (not very likely). My estimations indicate this process will begin before the end of 2012.

Next, if the US fails to heed the edicts of the bond market and tries to maintain spending in the face of rising interest rates or print its way out of trouble, the risks increase that the US dollar will suffer a major decline. Let’s say that this process will begin a year after the start of the fiscal crisis.

That’s all there is to it. A fiscal crisis possibly (probably?) followed by a currency crisis – all initiated by a leadership crisis.


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