Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey shows that President Obama would enjoy a modest 44% to 39% lead over Texas Governor Rick Perry. [I]f Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann is the nominee, Obama holds a 46% to 39% advantage.

Rasmussen Reports

EXCERPTS:

Data released yesterday shows that former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney is in a toss-up with the president: Romney 43% Obama 42%.

The match-up surveys of 1,000 Likely Voters were conducted from July 6-7 and July 8-9, 2011 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error for the surveys is +/- 3% with a 95% level of confidence.  Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Romney does a bit better than Perry and Bachmann among Republican voters. That may reflect the unease of establishment Republicans with some of the other choices available. Romney also does better among unaffiliated voters. Among those voters, the former Governor leads Obama while Perry and Bachmann trail slightly.

Polls conducted a year-and-a-half before an election provide a snapshot of where things are today but give little indication of what the mood might be on Election Day. If the economy substantially improves before November 2012, President Obama will be heavily favored to win re-election. If the opposite happens and the country endures a double-dip recession, just about any Republican challenger would be favored.

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