Jobless claims up – higher debt & slow growth – starting to look like Europe

March 8, 2012 11:29

Who ya gonna believe, me or your own lyin’ eyes? The Obama mythology of a rebounding economy runs head on into reality. By the way,  they mysteriously RAISED the reported jobless claims for last week also. Ever wonder why the revisions never go down?

As we reported earlier:

The Labor Force Participation Rate also shrank to record lows. The number of people working is at a low not seen since 1981. The recently released Congressional Budget Office (CBO) report on the economy showed that if the workers that have left the rolls were counted the unemployment rate would be 10%. The jubilation of the Obama campaign press over a miniscule drop in the rate is great for campaign speeches but the reality is much grimmer.

John P. Hussman, Ph.D. at Hussman Funds agrees with the recently released Congressional Budget Office (CBO) report on the economy which predicts slow growth and higher unemployment in the near future.

Hussman even says that a recession in likely. “Overall, an economic downturn remains the most likely prospect, and it’s not at all clear that the latest employment report changes that risk.”

John P. Hussman, Ph.D. at Hussman Funds explains the details:

“To begin, it’s useful to understand how the Bureau of Labor Statistics calculated the 243,000 increase in employment that it reported for January. Total non-farm employment in the U.S., before seasonal adjustments, fell by 2,689,000 jobs in January. However, because it’s typical for the economy to lose a large number of jobs after the holidays, largely in retail trade, construction, and manufacturing, the BLS estimated that the “normal” seasonal decline in employment should have been 2,932,000 jobs in January. The difference between the two numbers, of course, was 243,000 jobs, which was reported as an increase in employment. The fact that the size of the seasonal adjustment was more than 12 times the number of reported jobs, and more than 30 times the “beat” in economists’ expectations, should provoke at least some hesitation in taking the number at face value. [emphasis added]


Notably, the January 2011 and 2012 seasonal adjustment factors ( seasonally adjusted payrolls divided by unadjusted payrolls) have been the two largest factors used by the BLS since the 1960′s, at 1.0166 and 1.0165, respectively. This compares with a January seasonal factor of 1.0155 a decade ago, and a factor of 1.0152 as recently as 2009. Now, a range of 0.0014 in the seasonal factors for January may not seem like much, until you consider that non-seasonally adjusted payrolls are presently about 130 million jobs, so variation in the seasonal adjustment factor alone amounts to a difference of 182,000 reported jobs. [emphasis added]


Moreover, we’ve had a remarkably mild winter in the U.S, particularly in January, and it’s clear that this has favorably affected both construction and retail activity. Ironically, however, nothing in the seasonal adjustment actually adjusts for this purely seasonal effect. If the mild winter weather reduced the “normal” number of January layoffs by just 3-4%, that would account for the entire amount by which the January employment number “beat” economists’ expectations.“ [emphasis added]

So the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has subjectively manipulated the data reporting to provide the Obama campaign with a happy sound bite which will be parroted throughout the Obama propaganda media as “good news” for the struggling economy. Remember the BLS is the government.

The Obama campaign and its slavishly supportive media are trying their best to, as Obama would say,  put lipstick on a pig.


By Michael Whipple, Editor


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