A very big question mark hanging over the global table is what the hell is going to happen between Iran and Israel. … thoughts on some of the variables including Syria, bunker bombs and timing were interesting.

By Bruce Krasting

A very big question mark hanging over the global table is what the hell is going to happen between Iran and Israel. I spoke with a fellow in Europe I know who has an informed opinion. There were no secrets discussed, but his thoughts on some of the variables including Syria, bunker bombs and timing were interesting.

Will Israel allow Iran to develop a nuke?

Not a chance in hell.

What is the “over – under on timing”?

Certainly less than two years.

Does Israel have the capacity to take out concrete hardened facilities in Iran?

Yes, but this is by no means an easy task.

Explain?

It is not possible for the Israel Air force to attack without going over some other country’s border. The choices are Turkey (Iraq then Iran), Jordan (Saudi Arabia, Iraq then Iran), Syria (Iraq then Iran) or Saudi Arabia (Direct to Iran).

 

 

Which route will Israel choose?

It will go over Syria. There would be hell to pay if Israel went over Turkey or Jordan. If the Saudis “permitted” it, the Iranians would retaliate by assassinating Saudis all over the world. So it will be Syria. This is especially true as the country is in chaos today.

Will Syria attempt to shoot down Israeli aircraft flying over its territory?

Is it a problem if Israeli attack bombers fly over Iraqi territory?

No one gives a shit about Iraq anymore.

What happens when the Israeli bombers get over Iranian air space?

This question has no answer. If it happens, this would be the most advertized air attack in history. The Iranians have sophisticated radar and surface to air capability they bought from China. It would be a mistake to assume that an attack can be made without losses.

How would the attack take place?

Israel will use its F15s. Each plane will be armed with a single laser-guided bunker buster bomb.It will use their F16s as escorts.

As of today, Israel “officially” has only thirty of these bunker bombs. It has a total of 100 F15 attack bombers, so it needs more bombs to fully utilize their strike capability. Look for a sign on this. If the US agrees to supply more bombs, the timing is close.

What is your guess on the outcome?

It is not possible to predict what will happen in Syria. The chaos today creates the best opportunity for Israel. Who knows what can happen in six-months? Every week Iran’s defenses get stronger.  This will be resolved, one way or the other, in less than six-months.

 

Bruce Krasting

Westchester, NY, United States

I worked on Wall Street for twenty five years. This blog is my take on the financial issues of the day. I was an FX trader during the early days of the ‘snake’ and the EMS. Derivatives on currencies were new then. I was part of that. That was with Citi. Later I worked for Drexel and got to understand a bit about balance sheet structure and corporate bonds from Mike Milken. I was involved with a Macro hedge fund later. That worked out all right, but it is not an easy road. There was one tough week and I thought, “Maybe I should do something else for a year or two.” That was fifteen years ago. I love the markets. How they weave together. For twenty five years I woke up thinking, “What am I going to do today to make some money in the market”. I don’t do that any longer. But I miss it.

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