Staying Normal Is Not Easy When All Government Behavior Seems Abnormal

May 11, 2012 09:47

I am not a conspiracy theorist, never have been. Yet, the data keeps supporting this crazy alternative hypothesis. Who is really crazy here? Is it the conspiracy theorists who have data which support their position or the rest of us who continue to believe otherwise in spite of the mounting evidence?


By Monty Pelerin


I cannot make sense of a lot of things happening in this country. Economically, policies make no sense. Politically, one wonders why Congress has just rolled over for Obama who has taken actions that would have brought impeachment proceedings a decade ago.

I have puzzled long and hard to understand what is going on and what is going to happen. Unfortunately, I can make little sense of most of what is happening. It all is so puzzling and seems so wrong. One must attribute stupidity to the economic policies in order to rationalize them.

Political inaction is likely due to cowardice or self-interest, with Republicans still believing they hurt themselves with the impeachment hearings against Bill Clinton. The bulk of Democrats have no interest in stopping Obama. They have become a party that will use whatever means to achieve office. Sadly, there are virtually no Democrats left with class, character or integrity, not that Republicans differ materially.

I have a number of friends who I have considered crazy. You know the type, the ones who believe a conspiracy hides behind every act of government and every tree in the forest. In terms of looking at government the last several years, I cannot rationalize most decisions. They insist it is because I am using the wrong model. I am  chided because I evaluate decisions in terms of what is best for the country. I have never considered myself naive with politicians, knowing that they will exploit and plunder whenever they have the opportunity. They disagree with my underlying premise, insisting that what is going on is something much bigger and more sinister. To them, government has now shifted gears. They believe the goal of government is now to destroy the economy and the country, at least as we have known it during our lifetimes.

Much of what looks irrational in terms of my premise — saving the country — suddenly becomes rational if their premise is substituted. Their model fits much, much too well. I do concede their model seems to fit the decisions and outcomes better than mine.

I am still hard-pressed to agree to a conspiracy of the magnitude which they believe. But their model fits the data (behavior) better than mine (the conventional one). Most everything that has happened appears rational if you substitute their chilling end of planned destruction in place of remedying the problem.

These friends are convinced that Obama is an evil rather than ignorant and incompetent. They believe he is quite competent and leading a long-planned and carefully designed program to overthrow the government of the United States. They are less clear what that means; some believing it ends in some form of dictatorship with others believing it is the feared “One-World Government” ending that has been rumored for at least forty years.

The behavior I have seen is consistent with either of these treasonous goals. That itself is scary.

Many websites truly believe Obama is some Socialist Satan, a foreign plant put in place by some other power. To them, he is a puppet trained, along with his czars,  to destroy the country. While this sounds implausible to me, it is becoming more reasonable by the day than the alternative hypothesis of stupidity. Stupid people are not always wrong in their decisions. Sometimes they stumble into correct ones. There is little evidence of any correct ones.

I have not reached the point yet where I am going over to the other side, but it is hard to stay “normal” when all the data points are abnormal. I am concerned, becoming more so with each day and each “irrational” act.

Here is a recent article sent from a reader that corresponds with the hypothesis that this behavior is deliberate. I know little of the reader and nothing of the author of the article. Here is a snippet:

Metaphorically speaking, there’s a revolution going on in the U.S., propped up by three legs. Economic chaos, chaos through racial division, and chaos through class division, all joined by one core element: Barack Hussein Obama and his stable of unelected czars. Obama is using the lessons learned in 1968 as the template for 2012, and many of those who were active in the late 1960s are now calling the shots for 2012.

“The Obama administration and many of the un-elected ‘czars,’ either directly or indirectly, are engaged in covert activities with the occupy movement, various labor protests, and other subversive activities inside the U.S.,” stated my source. Using untracked campaign funds, they are paying people to infiltrate the various movements to cause physical destruction of property and disrupt commerce. That began last year, but has increased ten-fold already this year,” stated this source. He added that they are using some lower level DHS agents to make the payments under the context of tracking subversives, but they are the unwitting subversives. “It’s like Fast & Furious” but in the social realm,” he added.

It is a long article with lots of assertions and accusations. I leave it up to you to decide whether you want to pursue it.

Markets and normal politics are difficult enough to deal with. Conspiracy theories give me headaches, plus they are difficult if not impossible to incorporate into investment strategies. To accept them is to bet on the very improbable, something frequently asserted but rarely seen. Plus, they make you wonder whether you are going crazy along with those who you thought already were.

I am not a conspiracy theorist, never have been. Yet, the data keeps supporting this crazy alternative hypothesis. Who is really crazy here? Is it the conspiracy theorists who have data which support their position or the rest of us who continue to believe otherwise in spite of the mounting evidence?

What a world we live in and have in front of us!



“Monty Pelerin” is a pseudonym derived from The Mont Pelerin Society. The writer has no connection with the Society (other than coincidence of philosophy). Nothing said by me should be considered to be representative of the views of the Mont Pelerin Society or any of its members. “Monty Pelerin”  blogs at Monty Pelerin’s World


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